Transportation Electrification for Climate Action Goals in the Post-Pandemic Era: An Agent-Based Travel Behavior and Emission Modeling Approach

Abstract

The behavior changes due to COVID-19 have exacerbated existing traffic emissions challenges including increase in GHG emissions which may push us away from the climate challenge goals. Electrifying transportation fleet can be one of the feasible solutions to reduce traffic emissions, positively impact air quality and ultimately achieve climate goals. We propose an agent-based travel behavior and emission simulation framework that quantifies the emission reduction benefits of fleet electrification considering the travel behavior changes due to COVID-19. Without transportation electrification, the worst-case scenario in post-pandemic due to behavior changes will increase GHG emissions to 152% of pre-COVID level. However, various electrification scenarios can reduce GHG emissions from 11% to up to 80% from on-road traffic. In addition, transportation electrification can also generate health co-benefits by reducing the PM2.5. The relationship between costs of fleet electrification and magnitude of emission reduction is analyzed that can help stakeholders find the most cost-effective plan.

GHG emissions analysis from EV scenarios